Super 12 - Tim Cook's big day arrives

So the big day has arrived. Early evening UK time Tim Cook will take the stage and - doubtless after significant preamble - will reveal the 6th iteration of the iPhone. Here's my predictions for what we'll see in the iPhone 5... or maybe not...

Core features:

A bigger screen (100% certain). But how big, that is the question? My guess is a 16:9 aspect ratio 4" display with Retina. Covered in Gorilla Glass, obviously.
Faster processor (100%). I expect an "A" series quad core, 1,200MHz CPU with a seperate high performance multicore graphics processor. This will almost certainly be the debut of the A6 CPU, probably paired with 1GB of RAM (up from 512MB in the '4S). Expect the new iPhone to mirror the new iPad and exceed the processing capabilities of its competition.
No change in internal memory (99%). I expect 16, 32 and 64Gb to remain the capacity options for the new device. With iCloud now firmly established it would seem strange to increase capacity, particularly since Apple have fallen out with Samsung and are trying to move their memory supply elsewhere.
LTE (100%). The big question on LTE is whether the new device will support non-US frequency bands. My view is that Apple will offer a US and a "world" version of the device. I don't believe that it's possible to support all possible varients of the next generation mobile standard in one slim device.
Upgraded Siri (100%). Whether its truly upgraded or not is a moot point. Cook will spend some time talking up his voice assistant technology, which - in fairness - continues to improve
A better camera (25%). The iPhone 4S has an 8mp camera that can shoot HD video. In reality this is more than enough for the kind of use most people put the iPhone to. We might see a clever new lens technology, but I doubt it. Being cynical, an improved camera is an easy win for the inevitable iPhone 5S.

New things:

A new name (50%). We all assume that this will be the iPhone 5. I wonder whether it might be the iPhone HD or just the iPhone. If I were a betting man I'd go for the former. iPhone 5 is clunky and Apple aren't clunky.
A unibody case (75%). My gut feeling is that the new iPhone will have a new industrial design, featuring a single piece case as opposed to the existing one, which has glass front and rear with an aluminium centre section. I expect the new one to ape the Nokia Lumia and go all metal.
NFC (50%). Although its usefulness is very debatable, near field communications technology is mature enough and micro enough to be a no-brainer add on to the iPhone's hardware suite.
A new power connector (75%). Exciting stuff now - Apple are apparently keen on changing to a smaller connector port for the new iPhone, a change that will enable the head phone jack to move to the base of the device. Revolutionary :).
Wireless charging (10%). I'd be pretty surprised if wireless charging was part of the feature set this time around. I'm not sure its mainstream enough for Apple to go for during such a big upgrade to the feature set.
"Nano" Sim (75%). Another tidying up of the iPhone's internals will probably take place with the replacement of the current microSIM with an even smaller nanoSIM. Cue more fiddling about with tiny SIM removal tools. Sigh.

There's also the possibility of other products being launched at this juncture. Personally I don't expect to see a 7" iPad Mini at this time, although I could see the benefit of a pre-Christmas launch. Perhaps an October event alongside a refresh of the iMac range?

Other things like a new Apple TV seem unlikely as that device has recently been refreshed. So I think we'll just have to be satisfied with a new iPhone. Poor us.

Unless Cook pulls a Jobsian "just one more thing" and changes the market again. You never know.

Impacts of a handset leasing model on mobile telcos

Following yesterday's post, here's some related thinking on the impacts on operators of handset leasing. Handset sales represent around 25% of operator revenues in a typical European market, but generate only around 5% of margin. It may therefore be the case that the scenario described would lead operators to a more profitable structural model than exists today. Oil companies are consistently and acceptably profitable, despite being (literally in some cases) the ‘dumb pipe’ that operators are so desperate to avoid becoming. One of the reasons for the oil majors sustained profitability is clear focus on their role in the value chain – to supply the fuel that enables transportation, relying primarily on location, then brand and finally product innovation to compete. BP or Shell do not need to subsidise the purchase of a car in order to drive consumption of fuel because consumers are ‘hooked’ on it (it gets them from place to place) and there are many credible car manufacturers an

Value drivers for telecoms retail

I've been doing a really large number of driver trees recently - we've taken to using them on every project to get really into the guts of value creation for businesses and thus decide where to focus initiative development (How To Win, if you're keeping score). Anyhow, I had to pause for thought recently to work out how to represent the subscription aspect of telecoms retail for a client. Since it took me a minute, I thought I'd share... its lack of elegance suggests that its not quite right, although it was enough to demonstrate that there was a certain lack of coverage in the initiatives that my client was pursuing and thus spark a debate. Enjoy.

Chief Strategy Officers II - Career Development

Here's a follow up to my earlier post on the starting point of Chief Strategy Officer (CSO) careers in the FTSE 100 and S&P 500 companies - a visualisation of two steps in their careers: their first employer or job and the job they had before they got their current position. Lots of work went into this... so any insights that you glean from the visualisation would be great to hear about :). The CSO is a crucial strategic role on the executive (!) and the owner of the tone and philosophy of decision making across much of the business, knowingly or unknowingly. Scrutiny of their experience in defining the process and language of strategic management is therefore appropriate not just amongst their executive peers, but in my view amongst shareholders. The days when being very smart and able to analyse large amounts of data were enough to be a CSO are basically gone... has the profession moved on enough to cope?

Versatile Amphibian

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