Versatile Amphibian

As Facebook's shares continue to decline ( they closed at $28 on Wednesday ) rumours have begun to circulate about a takeover bid for browser software maker Opera . This, like Instagram, would be a puzzling move. I definitely think that getting into mobile in a serious way is the only way for Facebook to generate the returns that investors hope it will. But Facebook's biggest issue is its lack of a compelling business model. The same could be said of Opera, which, despite expanding market share in both desktop and mobile browsing, is hardly a cash generating machine. Despite a nearly $900Mn market cap, in a good year, its EBITDA from nearly 200mn users probably won't cross $20mn. Annual per-user revenue was about $0.6 in 2011, tiny even when compared to Facebook's $4.7 per user per year. There's also the difficult issue of cannibalisation. 60mn Opera users are PC based and about 200mn use its Opera Mini mobile browser. I'm not sure that the former would b...

I recently acquired a Nike Fuel Band. Once I've used it for a bit, I'll post a full review, but in the interim, I thought it worth writing down why I spent £150 on what's ostensibly a gimmick. It's really all about gameification. Nike+ was the first truly mass market attempt at bringing elements of professional fitness monitoring to the mass market. Before Nike+, one had to shell out hundreds of pounds on a connected heart rate watch. This reduced the barrier to entry to a few pounds for a shoe sensor - all the processing is done in an iPod or iPhone. I've been using Nike+ for years and I really like it. The trouble is that it is 'project' based fitness. When you go for a run, you can log it. When you stop, it stops. Although it's motivational to see your progress (slow, in my case), it's easy to forget about it or make excuses not to go today because it's too cold/ too hot/ I'm too hungover etc... Hardly anyone has the commitment and ...

I’m of the belief that participants in the TMT industry need to read widely in order to understand the present and future dynamics of the market. To that end, this post is a collection of the articles that have caught my eye. This week: Yahoo banks $7.1Bn, having bought Instagram, Facebook launches new Instagram, Apple ups manufacturing capacity ahead of mystery launch and it’s Chickenball time for Big Data Digital media In a week of bad online tech’ news (thanks Facebook!), Yahoo have just made themselves a cool $7.1Bn by selling half of its stake in troublesome Chinese e-commerce platform Alibaba. http://www.geeky-gadgets.com/yahoo-sells-alibaba-stake-for-7-1-billion-21-05-2012/ 66% of national advertisers in the USA are also spending on local advertising. An interesting finding, but I suspect volumes are small – targeting and high ROI are even harder to achieve at the local level. Flip side is that I suspect a brilliant local campaign is very much more differentiated than a ...

Since Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility finally went ahead this week, I thought this might be a timely moment to share some data that a colleague sent me regarding Android shipments. It throws into sharp relief the way in which a combination of Samsung at the mid and top end, and Chinese manufacturers at the low end, have reduced Motorola, LG and even formerly mighty HTC to also-rans. Motorola’s market share has fallen from about 11% in the 1st quarter of 2011, to less than 6% in the same quarter this year. HTC is even worse. They were neck and neck with Samsung at the start of the period, selling 22.5% of all Android devices. Now they are only 8.9% of the market and falling fast. Samsung, on the other hand, now represent 41.7% of Android shipments. This looks like a dominant position, but it should be remembered that one or two failed launches could easily lead to a rapid decline. What they need to do, in my opinion, is push much harder to create a credible ecosystem th...

So things aren't going very well for Facebook. As we all know, not only did the shares fail to pop, they then plummeted and more trouble seems afoot, since even the underwriting banks have slashed their revenue estimates for Facebook . Although Zuck has wedded bliss (and a couple of billion bucks) to fall back on, I suspect he's feeling a bit blue at the moment. So I wondered, what would I do, if I were Zuck? Besides buying a yacht and an island... 1. Do something about mobile Mobile experience and Facebook's inability to monetise it is destroying them. All this talk of emerging market consumers is meaningless if they can't be made to pay and in developed markets the iPhone/ iPad consumer is passing Facebook by. The trouble is the Facebook isn't a platform or an ecosystem. Even Amazon - the smallest of the tech superpowers - has it's own platform (Kindle) and ecosystem (Prime). That allows it to create value through retail, lock-in through closed ecosy...

I’m of the belief that participants in the TMT industry need to read widely in order to understand the present and future dynamics of the market. To that end, this post is a collection of the articles that have caught my eye. This week: social media ads are bunkum, most efficient computer makes (deliberate) mistakes, Thai schools get 400,000 tablets & how our fear of death affects our decision making Digital media An amazing 18% of smart phone users say they use a geo-social service to login to a location. Women use them more than men, and people on low incomes are more likely to use them than those earning over $75,000 a year. Sadly, the survey doesn’t seem to talk about frequency of use, which is a shame. http://www.pewinternet.org/~/media/Files/Reports/2012/PIP_Location_based_services_2012_Report.pdf US social media advertising to increase at 21% CAGR to 2016, meaning it’ll be $9.6Bn in that year. That’ll be why Facebook’s IPO was such a bust. http://www.biakelsey.com/Co...

It’s a tough decade to lead a major corporation or government. Things are changing so fast and the macroeconomic situation is so complex that it’s no surprise the finger gets pointed at Managers whenever things go wrong. The travails of new leaders at Nokia and now RIM and Yahoo have also placed scrutiny on the selection criteria for Managers. It’s possibly because of this that there’s been an upsurge in research around a-periodical systems as a way of selecting leaders at all levels of organisations. Typically, this research is aimed at governmental systems and since “a-periodicity” is really a fancy way of saying “random”, the governmental system has come to be known as a “randomocracy”. Partly because I love the name and partly because I’m really interested in the practice of leadership in a digital, millennial business environment, I’ve been thinking about some randomocracy ideas could be applied to business management. Random acts of kindness – the pure randomocracy A pure r...

I spent last week in Dubai attending the Arab Media Forum and visiting with a number of local media and telecoms companies. Development of a large media – particularly TV and movie - industry seems to feature on the strategic plans of almost all Arab states, so I was interested in getting an impression of how they compare as well as a sense for how the Arabic media industry in general is evolving. A long (form) journey To date, Arabic media’s greatest success is to create at least one global news brand – Al Jazeera – which has been instrumental in expressing the Arab voice in the region and worldwide. The overwhelming sense I got in the this visit (and in previous ones) was that the desired next step was to have the same clarity of voice in long form content as they do in short form. This is particularly for engagement of the Arabic diaspora worldwide, who are currently poorly catered for. To achieve this, my view is that regional producers need to improve the overall quality of ...

I’m of the belief that participants in the TMT industry need to read widely in order to understand the present and future dynamics of the market. To that end, this post is a collection of the articles that have caught my eye. This week: Moneybull transforms milk production, Kim jams GPS, Apple Targets Amazon and the World’s longest infographic charts the apocalypse Digital media Comscore report a sixth successive quarter of US e-commerce growth. The size of that market is now about $44Bn a quarter or roughly 3% of total consumer spending (versus 11% for the UK). What’s most interesting is that kiosk-based DVD and Blu-Ray rental and media streaming services are one of the prime drivers of this increase and of general consumer spending growth (which is c.0.3%). That’s despite falling spending average salaries (down 0.3%). www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2012/5/comScore_Reports_44.3_Billion_in_Q1_2012_U.S._Retail_E-Commerce_Spending This article is about how Japanese ...

A common concern my clients express is how a large business with its engrained culture and rigorous risk processes can compete with fast-moving start ups. The latter are unimpeded by the organisational strata that come with scale and therefore can act fast to access market opportunities. They are also unimpeded by incumbency and therefore are free to disrupt your business with impunity. In my experience, the reason behind the lack of organisational agility that is at the root of the problem is based on how personal risk and reward is calculated in a business. It is also rather soluble, provided that underlying psychology is understood. Managers in a start-up actually have it rather hard. If they don’t hit their targets then after a very short time they won’t be able to pay the wages. Cash flow is a key challenge for most start-ups, even those that are comparatively well funded. What this challenge breeds is an institutional attitude that they must rapidly seek out the “low...

$322 million of new investment in African telecoms infrastructure was announced in April 2012 and an additional $2 billion was spent by France Telecom to increase their stake in Egyptian mobile operator Mobinil to 95%.   But the month’s news was dominated by continued intervention by African governments into their telecoms markets. In Algeria, the wrangle between the Government and Vimpelcom over ownership of local mobile operator Djezzy ground on. Unable to easily get its way through compulsory purchase, the former has imposed $1.3 billion of fines on the Telco to attempt to force Vimpelcom’s hand over an asset that it now values at $6.5 billion. The south and east of the continent fared no better. Here’s a few more stories: In Tanzania it transpired that the Government owns 40% of Airtel’s subsidiary in the country and has no intention of selling; Malawian telecoms regulator MACRA was fined $67 million for breach of contract over cancelled spectrum licenses; Telkom So...

I’m of the belief that participants in the TMT industry need to read widely in order to understand the present and future dynamics of the market. To that end, this post is a collection of the articles that have caught my eye. This week: consumers worry about the future, physicists worry about Moore’s Law, Red lays down own law in camera shootout, Dubai plans underwater hotel; Australian Titanic hopes not to join it. Digital economy People who “like” brands on Facebook are more likely to purchase from those brands. A great headline, but it looks to me that reasons they do so are that they’re already loyal customers... http://www.marketingcharts.com/direct/company-socnet-posts-said-influencing-most-fans-purchase-decisions-21938/ ...something that might become ever more important if the findings of this survey on the attitudes of consumers to progress manifest in their actual behaviour. According to this, young consumers are going to reduce their consumption, think the world is h...

If you listen to Jimmy Wales, then traditional media is dead . Consumers in 2012 want their media to be more interactive, more social. They want to choose what they consume and when they consume it. The safe, constrained world of the schedule and page layout is just so 20th Century. So long traditional media and thanks for the memories. If I get sentimental, I’ll access them anytime, anywhere I want them. Yet traditional media endures. TV viewing hours are up 4% YoY in the UK. Print advertising not only has more impact on consumers than online, but its advantage is actually increasing . Why? Because media is a social experience, something best enjoyed together. It gives us something to discuss, to debate and when things get too much, to escape with. Nearly two-thirds of us discuss TV shows with friends or colleagues at least once a week, nearly half of us will discuss what we’ve read in the news and a third chat about books. On-demand services are uncompromising, individual exper...